Source Acknowledgment: This article references an opinion piece by Thomas Juneau, originally published on Breaking Defense prior to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to the White House on May 6, 2025.
In the lead-up to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this week, a timely opinion piece by Thomas Juneau – professor at the University of Ottawa and former Department of National Defence analyst – offered a sobering assessment of the current Canada–U.S. relationship.
Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump engage in a meeting at the White House in Washington, D.C., Tuesday, May 6, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
Juneau’s central thesis is clear: Canada can no longer rely on the deep-rooted bilateral ties that defined relations with the United States for decades. Instead, Ottawa must prepare for a future where power imbalances are more explicit, institutional cooperation is less reliable, and transactional politics dominate.
Prime Minister Carney has already acknowledged that the “Canada-U.S. relationship as we knew it no longer exists.” The challenge, then, is how Canada responds to this new reality—especially when faced with repeated aggressive rhetoric from President Trump, including offhand threats of annexation and 51st state references.
A Stark Choice Ahead
In his commentary, Juneau outlines three possible scenarios for future Canada–U.S. relations:
- Return to the pre-2025 status quo — unlikely under the current U.S. administration.
- Worst-case breakdown — involving extreme instability or even annexation threats, which remain low-probability but high-impact scenarios.
- A new equilibrium — the most probable, where cooperation continues but is shallower, more volatile, and shaped by American dominance.
The third scenario – the emergence of a fragile new equilibrium—demands smart, preemptive strategy from Ottawa. Juneau suggests that Canada must “shape this new equilibrium” before it is shaped for us. This means rethinking defense, diplomacy, and economic policy to navigate the evolving power dynamics.
Defense: From Delay to Demonstration
One clear recommendation: accelerate defense spending. Rather than adhering to the Liberal-era target of reaching 2% of GDP by 2030, Juneau calls for hitting this benchmark by 2027, with a roadmap to exceed 2.5%. This would include major investments in:
- Arctic sovereignty and surveillance
- NORAD modernization
- Canadian Armed Forces renewal
- Participation in U.S.-led missile defense initiatives, such as the proposed “Golden Dome”
Such moves would not only bolster Canada’s defense posture but also send a clear signal to Washington that Ottawa is serious about burden-sharing in a time of increasing global threats.
Intelligence, Border Security, and Concessions
Juneau also recommends improving Canada’s foreign intelligence capabilities, ideally establishing a dedicated human intelligence service. In parallel, he argues for proposing enhanced border security measures—even if Trump’s concerns are inflated, such proposals would provide diplomatic leverage.
On trade, Juneau concedes that economic concessions may be necessary, particularly in sectors traditionally shielded by Canadian policy. While politically difficult, these compromises could be exchanged for reductions in tariffs and a de-escalation in public tensions.
The “Donut Strategy” Reaffirmed
Beyond formal negotiations, Canada must double down on what Juneau calls the “donut strategy”—working with American allies beyond the Oval Office: Congress, state governments, civil society, and business communities. These actors often support stable Canada–U.S. relations and can help anchor cooperation when the federal executive is less predictable.
Conclusion: A Transactional Era
Canada has long benefitted from its proximity to and partnership with the United States. But the geopolitical environment in 2025 is not the same as it was a decade ago. As Juneau warns, multilateralism is giving way to transactionalism. Canada must enter this era clear-eyed, realistic, and proactive.
The Prime Minister’s visit to Washington may not yield immediate breakthroughs – but the groundwork laid now could define the next decade of Canadian foreign policy. As Canada reorients its defense strategy and diplomatic posture, this moment could be the start of a more assertive, strategically independent Canadian voice on the world stage.
Canada Defence Journal 