(Based on reporting by The Associated Press)
The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine reached a new and significant milestone with the fierce battle for Russia’s Kursk region. Nearly nine months after Ukrainian forces launched a daring incursion across the border, Russia has claimed it has fully reclaimed the territory. Ukraine, however, contests the assertion, insisting that fighting is still ongoing.
A Ukrainian tank passed by a burning car in Sumy region. Source: The Associated Press.
As Canadian policymakers, analysts, and defence enthusiasts closely watch the conflict’s evolution — with its profound implications for global stability — the battle for Kursk offers key insights into the shifting dynamics on the ground.
The Incursion: Ukraine’s Calculated Gamble
On August 6, 2024, Ukrainian forces executed a surprise offensive into Russia’s Kursk region. In a meticulously concealed operation, Ukraine’s mechanized units quickly overwhelmed Russian border guards and inexperienced conscripts, seizing around 1,300 square kilometres of territory and capturing hundreds of prisoners.
This was a historic moment: it marked the first time Russian soil had been occupied by an external invader since the Second World War. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy framed the move as a strategy to distract Russian forces bogged down in Donetsk, hoping to use captured territory as leverage in future peace negotiations.
However, some military experts questioned the move, viewing it as a risky distraction from the more critical eastern front, where Ukrainian forces were losing ground.
Russia’s Response: A Struggle for Momentum
Initially, Russia’s response was slow and disjointed. Without enough forces in the region, Moscow relied heavily on airpower and rushed in ad-hoc reinforcements from across the country. The early Ukrainian successes revealed glaring vulnerabilities in Russia’s border security and military preparedness — insights that Canadian and allied intelligence agencies will no doubt analyze closely.
Still, Russia did not redeploy significant combat units from Donetsk or other fronts, instead focusing on containing Ukrainian advances. As winter approached, Russia began reinforcing its Kursk deployments with better-equipped and more coordinated units.
North Korea’s Controversial Intervention
Perhaps the most surprising development was the reported involvement of North Korean troops. By fall 2024, Ukraine, the United States, and South Korea confirmed that approximately 10,000 to 12,000 North Korean soldiers had been sent to bolster Russian efforts in Kursk.
Despite early denials, Russia eventually acknowledged their presence, with senior military officials praising North Korean soldiers’ discipline and courage. However, reports indicated heavy casualties among the North Koreans, highlighting the challenges of fighting in unfamiliar terrain under modern drone and artillery attacks.
The involvement of North Korean forces adds a concerning dimension to the war for Canada and its allies. It signals deepening military ties between authoritarian states, an axis that Ottawa and NATO partners will need to monitor closely.
The Turning Point: Russia Reclaims Kursk
Through a gradual buildup and tactical pressure, Russia managed to reclaim most of the lost territory by early 2025. A key moment came in March when Russian forces conducted a daring infiltration through a natural gas pipeline to outflank Ukrainian troops near Sudzha — Ukraine’s operational hub in Kursk.
Ukraine’s precarious supply lines, coupled with a temporary freeze in U.S. military aid following diplomatic tensions between Kyiv and Washington, ultimately weakened its position.
By April 2025, Moscow claimed full control over Kursk, although Ukraine disputes this. If confirmed, Ukraine’s loss would strip it of a major bargaining chip for future negotiations — a significant setback as Kyiv seeks to reclaim about 20% of its national territory still under Russian control.
What Comes Next: Security Zones and New Threats
President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Kursk in March underscored Russia’s ambitions to create a “security zone” along the Ukrainian border — a move reminiscent of buffer zone strategies seen in other conflicts.
Russian forces are reportedly pushing into Ukraine’s Sumy region, already controlling 90 square kilometres. If successful, this could further threaten Ukraine’s northern flank and shift the war’s momentum further in Moscow’s favour.
For Canada and its allies, this intensification of hostilities and the broadening involvement of external actors like North Korea underscore the urgent need for continued support to Ukraine — diplomatically, economically, and militarily.
The battle for Kursk demonstrates how quickly the operational landscape can change and highlights the risks of assuming static front lines in modern conflict.
Credit:
This article is based on reporting from The Associated Press. For the original source, please see here.
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